the island. Olive's historical track was west of Guam, moving toward the north
with a slight curve toward northeast. Limited modeling indicated that hypotheti-
cal variations in Paka, with track shifted slightly north and south of the actual
track, had less impact on the study area than the historical Paka. Thus, any
further consideration of hypothetical variations in Paka was unnecessary. Olive
with track shifted 0.67 deg toward the east had sufficient impact that it was
added to the storm set for modeling. Another hypothetical variation of Olive,
with track shifted 0.67 deg to the west, was added for statistical balance in the
modeled storm set. With the addition of two hypothetical storms, the final data
set for modeling contained a total of 30 storms. The storms are listed in Table 1.
Statistical representativeness. Typhoons selected for modeling should be
fairly representative of storm track statistics for the full set of typhoons passing
into the box around Guam and Rota. Typhoons were classified according to their
travel direction, and results are given in Table 2. The storms selected for
modeling are considered sufficiently representative of the full set of storms.
8
Chapter 2
Storm Selection
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