probability relationships among the various measured storm parameters (e.g.,
maximum wind speed). The resampling scheme generates large populations of
data that are statistically similar to a much smaller database of historical events,
i.e., the training set of storms. Application of the EST to the expanded storm set
produces a database of peak overtopping rates by repeatedly simulating multiple-
year periods (e.g., 200-year periods) of storm activity. Expected overtopping rate
relationships are then calculated from the database of peak storm-induced over-
topping rates. Because of the repeated simulations, a measure of expected
variability of calculated overtopping rates is also provided.
The container yard may also be affected by flooding from the harbor side.
The sixth task was to evaluate this exposure. Deepwater waves incident to the
harbor were propagated through the harbor entrance gap and combined with
waves generated by local storm winds in the harbor, giving wave estimates along
the commercial dock. Storm surge water levels available from storm surge simu-
lations were then combined with incident and reflected wave conditions along
the dock to give water-level estimates. The EST methodology was applied to the
set of peak water levels from each storm to produce stage-frequency relation-
ships along the dock.
This report is divided into six chapters. Following the introduction, Chap-
ter 2 describes selection of storms to be modeled. Chapter 3 describes key
models and methods used in the study including meteorological, wave, and long-
wave hydrodynamic models, EST, overtopping analysis, and harbor side analy-
sis. Chapter 4 discusses long-wave hydrodynamic model calibration, validation,
and implementation. Chapter 5 reviews the methods as applied in this study for
calculation of overtopping- and stage-frequency relationships and presents study
results. Chapter 6 provides summary and conclusions of the study. References
are listed after Chapter 6.
Appendices follow the main report. Appendix A shows tracks followed by
typhoons selected for modeling. Appendix B contains a listing of station loca-
tions for storm surge calculations. Appendix C gives overtopping-frequency
relationship tables. Appendix D contains tables of wave parameters, setup, and
ponding level that correspond to peak overtopping rates for numerical gauge
locations. Appendix E shows stage-frequency relationship tables for the harbor
side of Cabras Island. Corresponding tables of wave parameters and water levels
by storm along the harbor side are given in Appendix F.
5
Chapter 1
Introduction
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