4.8 Socioeconomics
to longer term effects of El Nio, but the fact that many variables are involved make future predictions
difficult.
One way to examine the potential impacts of preclusion to the local commercial fishery is to assess the
impact of previous similar projects inthe same area, at least on a general level. Local commercial fishermen
have expressed concerns that previous beach replenishment operations have caused the loss of commercial
resources and created a "dead zone" off the beach, which has taken several years to return to normal. The
concern is that the proposed project will create similar impacts.
There have been numerous beach replenishment projects in the proposed project area that have been more
or less similar to the proposed project. For example, between 1954 and 1988 there were 37 major beach
replenishment projects for Oceanside and Carlsbad (mainly the beaches near Agua Hedionda Lagoon),
or an average of about one project per year. Average annual sand volumes for these projects were over
600,000 cy per year (USACOE 1991). Between 1981 and 1999, there have been over 28 major beach
replenishment projects for Oceanside and Carlsbad that have placed more than 9.8 million cy of sand on
the beach, which averages out to over 515,000 cy per year for these beaches (Coastal Environments 1998
and Appendix D). By way of contrast, Alternative 1 would deposit 760,000 cy on the beaches of
Oceanside and Carlsbad. This volume would exceed the annual average but is within the historical range
of previous projects. There have been sevenother replenishment projects for Carlsbad and Oceanside that
were larger than 900,000 cy between 1954 and 1996 (USACOE 1991, Coastal Environments 1998).
To understand the relationship to previous projects and the performance of the local commercial fishery,
an evaluation was performed of landings reported and past replenishment projects. In 1995, over 2 million
cy was placed on the beaches at Carlsbad. Commercial lobster landings reported for the port of
Oceanside for the following year (1996) were at record levels for both volume and value, far outdistancing
any of the previous 15 years (see Figure 3.8-2). Landings of rock crab at Oceanside in 1996 were also
high. In fact, it was the best year for rock crab since 1981. During 1996, there was an additional 802,000
cy sand put on the beaches at Oceanside and Carlsbad. Following the large beach replenishment projects
of 1995 and 1996, the lobster catch in 1997 was the best year ever, surpassing the 1996 record year in
terms of volume and value of catch landed at Oceanside. The reported rock crab harvest for 1997 was
down from 1996 levels, but still accounted for the highest volume and value of landings for any other year
since 1981. Thus, based on the CDFG data for Oceanside landings, there is no evidence of local impacts
to the lobster or crab fisheries as a result sand replenishment projects in 1995 and 1996.
Page 4.8-4
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