Because simulated events correspond to a specific location, the second
criterion to be satisfied is that the total number of storm events selected in the
T-years must be statistically representative of the number of historical events
that have occurred at the area of study. For this study, 30 typhoon events were
identified that passed within 370 km (200 miles) of Guam and Rota during the
53-year period extending from 1945 through 1997.
Output from the EST program is N repetitions of T-years of simulated storm
event responses. It is from these responses that frequency-of-occurrence rela-
tionships are computed. The computational procedure followed is based on the
generation of a probability distribution function corresponding to each of the
T-year sequences of simulated data. Additional detail about the EST is given by
Scheffner et al. (1999).
31
Chapter 3
Modeling Approach
Previous Page
